Archive for April 9th, 2009
9th April 2009
Time is Money
Interesting article in yesterday’s Times about the new Estonian Happiness Bank which trades in good deeds. We already have in Wales a growing time banking movement based in Treherbert. There’s even a public sector version where public agencies can second people for free. I think it’s time we looked at rolling out this out as a national time bank to which everyone could contribute. Perhaps Plaid could set a target for the next Assembly term of a billion minutes of mutual help. Cymortha- helping neighbours with the harvest - what in the industrial context we would have described as solidarity is a deeply ingrained part of the Welsh collective psyche - and in these difficult times one to be nurtured not forgotten.
Alongside the idea of mutual help, we need to give more prominence to the idea of community service as Obama is doing in America with his pledge to serve movement. The Welsh Assembly Government should not just demand the right for St.David’s Day to be designated a national holiday - as with Martin Luther King day in America it should be designated a day of national community service. Do the little things was after all his slogan.
Yr un hen stori - dwyn gan y tlawd i roi i’r cyfoethog / The same old story - stealing from the poor to give to the rich
Pan fo Lloegr yn dala anwyd, mae Cymru’n dal niwmonia oedd yr hen ystrydeb - ond pa mor wir yw hi nawr yng nghanol yr argyfwng economaidd presennol? Wel, mae’r ffigurau diweithdra diweddaraf yn ddadlennol ac mae’n eitha clir bod effaith yr argyfwng ac effeithlonrwydd polisiau Llywodraeth i warchod rhagddyn nhw yn dibynnu yn helaeth iawn ar ble dych chi’n byw.
Mae Llundain – er mawr syndod i rai mae’n siwr – wedi gweld cynnydd mewn cyflogaeth o gymharu a’r un chwarter flwyddyn yn ol. Fe welwyd cynnydd o 33,000 yn nifer y pobl mewn gwaith sy’n cyfateb i gwymp o 0.6%, tra gwelodd Cymru cynnydd diwethdra o 28,000 (lan 1.9%). Mae hyn er gwaetha’r gostyngiad yn y gyfradd gyfnewid a arweiniodd at obeithion y byddai gweithgynhyrchu yn medru manteisio.
Mae hyn yn siomedig. Y dybiaeth oedd y byddai patrwm daearyddol y dirwasgiad yma yn debycach i ddechrau’r nawdegau lle cyfranodd ecwiti negyddol at golli swyddi yn sectorau gwasanaethol De-ddwyrain Lloegr tra roedd gweithgynhyrchu mewn safle da i elwa o gwymp y punt wedi ei ymadawiad a rhagflaenydd yr Ewro – yr “ERM”. Dwi’n cofio’n dda i’r cyfradd diweithdra Cymreig ostwng o dan y cyfartaledd Prydeinig am y tro cyntaf ers degawadau oddeutu’r amser yma.
Pam felly y gwahaniaeth y tro hwn? Mae Llywodraeth y Cynulliad, wedi’r cwbl, wedi ennill parch am eu hymateb nhw i’r argyfwng gyda’r cynllun Proact, er enghraifft, yn cael ei grybwyll fel model ar gyfer gweddill y DG gan newyddiadurwyr, undebau a grwpiau busnes. Y gwir awmdani, wrth gwrs, ydy mai cyfyng iawn yw pwerau’r Cynulliad ar hyn o bryd yn y maes economaidd – o leiaf yn y tymor byr. Dau reswm dwi’n gweld sydd yn esbonio yn fras pam bod Cymru yn dioddef yn waeth, ac mae’r ddau o ganlyniad i bolisi bwriadol.
Yn gyntaf oll mae’r Llywodraeth wedi taflu lot fawr o arian at y sector bancio gan arbed degau o filoedd o swyddi – y rhan fwyaf ohonyn nhw yn Llundain (ond ychydig hefyd ym Mryste, Swydd Efrog, Newcastle a’r Alban). Dyw Cymru ddim wedi elwa yn uniongyrchol o hyn o gwbl. Mewn cymhariaeth dyw’r diwydiant dur Cymreig neu’r diwydiant ceir (Toyota, Ford, a llu o gwmniau bach) heb dderbyn dim o’r arian mae nhw wedi dderbyn ar y Cyfandir (ar wahan i’r arian Proact o’r Cynulliad).
Yr ail reswm pam bod y De-ddwyrain yn gwneud yn dda yw taw nhw sydd wedi elwa fwyaf o’r cyfraddau llog isel gan taw nhw sydd gyda’r morgeisi uchaf. Mae incwm dosbarthiadwy pobl sydd mewn gwaith yn Llundain yn uwch nag erioed. Ar y llaw arall mae pensiynwyr, sydd yn fwy niferus yng Nghymru ac sydd yn dibynnu yn fwy ar eu cynilon, yn derbyn llai o incwm bellach. I raddau helaeth felly mae ymateb y Llywodraeth Lundeinig i’r argyfwng yn cynrychioli’r ail-ddosbarthiad cyfoeth rhanbarthol mwyaf ers cyn cof. Dwyn gan y tlawd i roi i’r cyfoethoeg ydy’r stori hyd yma – fel buodd hi erioed.
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When England catches a cold, Wales catches pneumonia goes the old saying – but how true is that now, in the middle of the current economic crisis? Well, the latest unemployment figures are available and it’s quite clear the effect of the crisis and effectiveness of the Government’s policies to protect against it depends largely upon where you live.
London – to the surprise of many, I’m sure – has seen an increase in the number of employed compared with the same quarter a year ago. They saw a increase of 33,000 in the number of employed which corresponds to a drop of 0.6%, while Wales saw a rise in unemployment of 28,000 (up 1.9%). This is despite the reduction in the exchange rate that led to hopes that manufacturing would take advantage.
This is disappointing. The thinking was that the geographical pattern of this recession would be closer to the beginning of the nineties where the negative equity contributed to job losses in England’s south-eastern services sector while manufacturing was in a good position to benefit from the pound’s slump after withdrawing from the Euro’s precursor – the ERM. I remember well the Welsh unemployment rate falling below the British average for the first time for decades about that time.
Why then the difference this time around? After all, the Welsh Assembly Government has received praise for their answer to the crisis with the ProAct scheme, for example, being mentioned as a model for the rest of the UK by journalists, unions and business groups. The reality, if course, is that the Assembly’s current powers in the economic field are very limited – in the short term at least. I see two reasons that broadly explain why Wales is suffering worse, and both of them are results of intentional policies.
First of all, the UK Government has thrown an awful lot of money at the banking sector in order to save tens of thousands of jobs – most of them in London (but some as well in Bristol, Yorkshire, Newcastle and Scotland). Wales hasn’t directly benefited from this at all. In contrast, Welsh heavy industry or the automotive industry (Toyota, Ford and a host of smaller companies) haven’t received anything like that which they have received on the continent (except for the Assembly’s ProAct finance).
The second reason that the South-East is doing well is that they have benefited most from the low interest rate repayments because it is they who have the highest mortgages. The disposable income of people working in London is higher than ever. On the other hand, pensioners, who are more numerous in Wales and who are dependant upon their savings, are now receiving less of an income. To a significant extent, then, the London Government’s response to the crisis represents the greatest regional re-distribution of wealth in memory.
Stealing from the poor to give to the rich is the story here – as it always has been.