8th January 2008
Health Warning
In clearing out my mental in-tray after the Christmas recess, I have to take issue with this particular piece of Tory disingenuousness. On the facts of the case, the Tories are broadly right - though they do slightly exaggerate their case. By 2010/11, based on current trends, Wales will have the same level of expenditure per head on health as England, despite having much higher levels of health need (due to the levels of chronic illness) and the higher costs of delivering healthcare in a largely rural country. What they don’t adequately explain is why.
The underlying reason for the downward trend in relative Welsh health spending is the so-called “Barnett Squeeze” - the fact that Barnett is, in mathematical terms, a ‘convergent formula’ which means that Wales gets, year on year, a lower increase in public expenditure than England so that eventually Wales and England will be exactly equal in public spending terms. That day may be arriving even sooner than some had thought.
Both Labour and the Conservative Party have presided over the slide in Welsh per capita spending relative to England, and they have defended Barnett as delivering a fair deal to Wales which it patently does not. The failure to secure full match funding to Wales on the European Structural Funds has also compounded the problem, leading to the raiding of the health and education budgets to make up for the shortfall.
Both Labour and the Tories have had the opportunity over the last thirty years to scrap the flawed Barnett Formula and replace it with a fairer system based on need. But neither party has addressed this issue. What the Tories are in fact attacking is the inevitable outcome of their own policy. The figures may be accurate, but the policy simply doesn’t add up.
One Response so far to “Health Warning”
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Rhydian says:
January 8th, 2008 at 8:45 pm
Just to complement that Adam, the trend towards equality in public expenditure between England and Wales is a bad thing. This is because Welsh needs are different - not just in health as Adam points out, but all over - things like rurality and road length/quality play a part, as do the economic realities in Wales compared to most of England. This is why Plaid Cymru, and Adam in particular, spend a lot of time stressing the need for a ‘needs-based’ replacement to the Barnett Formula.
And what’s more, the trend towards equality is quite simple to show mathematically. This is why Adam is absolutely right to point out Tory and Labour hypocrisy - what is happening now was perfectly forseeable back in 1979 when the Barnett Formula was set up.