Most of all, I can’t stress how important I think the future is in all this. Many people I know think that ideas of Welsh independence are ridiculous and based on fantasy. I came across this quotation today that sums up how some feel about Plaid:

“The world is full of people whose notion of a satisfactory future is, in fact, a return to the idealised past.”

In some ways I think that criticism of that kind is justified – most Welsh nationalists see some element of historical redress in the matter. The most persuasive argument (for real people in the real world) needs to be one about the future – what opportunities could a new, free Wales create?! We don’t exactly have a blank canvas (with plenty of economic and social problems) but we do have significant potential.

That’s not to say that I think Plaid MPs and AMs should start saying “If we were independent then…” left, right and centre. I think we’re still 10-20 years shy of that point. But if Labour lose the next UK election and a Tory administration starts to take umbrage with Assembly practice – that’s when seeds can be sown. The Welsh electorate might be more persuaded to act if they resent being directed by a Tory PM. I also have a suspicion that the Welsh MPs who are currently fighting tooth and nail to stop more powers being transferred to the Assembly from Westminster might come unstuck when they realise that, as of 2010, there’s a much better chance of Labour influencing policy in Cardiff than in London (having said that, Plaid might not need a coalition if Labour’s support continues to crumble). Plaid needs to engineer its own opportunities to strengthen the need for independence as well as taking advantage of situations beyond its control.

For me, creating a positive and powerful vision of the future is the key to unlocking Wales’ potential as an independent state and I think Plaid should be overtly working towards that. Getting the numbers to add up and the policies right requires a number of intelligent, informed and astute individuals and I think the question is: ‘Do we have enough people like that on board?’

For me the discussion on how that aim is presented is currently moot because the Welsh electorate in general:

- See no reason for independence

and

- See no reasonable grounds upon which an independent Welsh nation could exist (economically or politically).

Comparisons with Ireland and Scotland are wide of the mark because the sense of cultural oppression or political/economic suppression are felt so much less here in Wales. From the field of business to the sports field, the majority of people in Wales seem to feel Welsh but consider themselves ‘British’. In many senses, the battle has been lost for Welsh independence based on historical reasons.

For me, the only way to meet the objective of independence is to start a new battle. Not based on historical reasons – because, let’s face it, only a small percentage of the Welsh are actually aware of them – but instead based on a new vision for a new Wales. We need to build the need and hunger for independence from the ground up over the long term whilst developing the mechanics of state. We’re not ready for an independence referendum in the next 10 years (as the Scots are) because, quite simply, we have not got the institutions and leaders capable of a) delivering a ‘Yes’ vote or b) delivering a stable and progressing nation.

Ironically, it is the British who have already sown the seeds that could grow into this future – our ‘nationhood’ within the UK in the 1950s, our flag, devolution – it’s up to the representatives of Plaid to persuade the electorate to follow them and elect people who will work toward this vision even if it can not be delivered upon in our own lifetimes.

Firstly it allows our opponents to define our goals in the public eye and leaves us on the back foot forever saying “That’s not what we mean!”

Secondly the public will not believe we can achieve our aims and we will be marginalised as extremists or the ‘lunatic fringe’

I suspect we will only ever get one chance for a referendum on an independant Wales and the only way to get people behind us is to present our policies and plans clearly in an easy to understand and impossible to misconstrue manner without attempting to hide our ultimate goal.